The Rays Expected Regression in Team Pitcher BABIP

In 2011, the Tampa Rays had the best pitching BABIP in the last 10 years at 0.264. They should not expect to put up a similar value in 2012, but how much will they regress to the league average value near 0.290. To find the answer, I went back over the same 10 year time frame and looked at how the ten next best teams ranked according to lowest pitcher BABIP did in the next season.

Of the ten teams, their average BABIP went from 0.273 to 0.287, or an increase 0.015. All ten teams saw an increase n BABIP with the smallest increase being 0.004 and the largest being 0.029.

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2 thoughts on “The Rays Expected Regression in Team Pitcher BABIP

  1. Tampa must be atop of the league in using a shift to defend against batters that may be a major factor in BABIP

  2. They, in fact, are atop the league in using the shift, by a significant margin.

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