The Texas Rangers gave a contract of seven years and $130M to Shin-Soo Choo. Here is a quick look at the probably production from Choo over the contract’s life.
Over the past three season Choo has produced 8.9 WAR. I found 18 outfielders since 1980 who produced between 8.4 and 9.4 WAR over the same age frame. Here is how they did over the next seven seasons:
The 7.6 WAR average value works out to “only” $17M per WAR.
Choo did struggle a bit in 2011 (1.3 WAR) and 2012 (2.4 WAR), so I decided to took his four year total of 14.8 WAR. I found 13 outfielders since 1980 who produced between 13.8 WAR and 15.8 WAR over the same age range. Here is how they did over the next seven seasons.
The average 11.4 WAR works weirdly to $11.4M per WAR. Better than $17M per WAR previously calculated, but this contract doesn’t look like it has much of a chance to work out.