Shin-Soo Choo Contract Comparables

The Texas Rangers gave a contract of seven years and $130M to Shin-Soo Choo. Here is a quick look at the probably production from Choo over the contract’s life.

Over the past three season Choo has produced 8.9 WAR. I found 18 outfielders since 1980 who produced between 8.4 and 9.4 WAR over the same age frame. Here is how they did over the next seven seasons:

Name WAR PA
Alfonso Soriano 20.7 3939
Robin Yount 19.2 4506
Fred Lynn 14.2 3340
Ron Gant 13.2 3237
Lance Johnson 12.4 2562
John Kruk 11.2 1747
Ryan Klesko 9.5 2516
Carlos Lee 8.7 3757
Garret Anderson 7.2 3916
Dwayne Murphy 7.0 1040
Milt Thompson 4.8 1930
Trot Nixon 4.5 1318
Larry Herndon 3.8 1249
Ryan Ludwick 3.5 1723
Nyjer Morgan 0.2 322
Milton Bradley 0.2 866
Ryan Freel -0.6 550
Brian McRae -2.5 472
Average 7.6 2166
Median 7.1 1839

The 7.6 WAR average value works out to “only” $17M per WAR.

Choo did struggle a bit in 2011 (1.3 WAR) and 2012 (2.4 WAR), so I decided to took his four year total of 14.8 WAR. I found 13 outfielders since 1980 who produced between 13.8 WAR and 15.8 WAR over the same age range. Here is how they did over the next seven seasons.

Name WAR PA
Jim Edmonds 35.5 3713
Tony Gwynn 26.2 3873
Alfonso Soriano 20.7 3939
Robin Yount 19.2 4506
David Justice 15.5 3252
Jim Rice 11.9 3238
Dwayne Murphy 7.0 1040
Cliff Floyd 5.5 2082
Von Hayes 3.5 1241
Darryl Strawberry 1.6 1012
Shane Mack 0.8 377
Rusty Greer 0.8 951
Carl Everett 0.3 2220
Average 11.4 2419
Median 7.0 2220

The average 11.4 WAR works weirdly to $11.4M per WAR. Better than $17M per WAR previously calculated, but this contract doesn’t look like it has much of a chance to work out.

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  1. Pingback: Rangers Sign Shin-Soo Choo - 7 Years - Page 2 - SportsHoopla.com Sports Forums

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