Quick Take: Winning Percentage for Games Less Than Nine Innings

Last night I heard a little grumbling about the Indians-Astros game getting called early. The Indians, the home team, won 2-1 in a 7 inning game. I decided to got back and see if the umpires were more likely to call a game with the home team winning vice losing.

I found there to be 269 games called early over the past 30 years. The home team won 143 times for a winning percentage of 53.2%. Historically, the home team wins 54% of the time, so no bias exists in calling the game.

Since I had the data available, I went ahead and plotted the number of games called early along with a three year average.


The number of games dipped in the mid-80′s and has been slowly rising since then.

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2 thoughts on “Quick Take: Winning Percentage for Games Less Than Nine Innings

  1. What’s the run differential for these games? My thought has always been the umpires are more likely to call the game if it’s out of reach for one team.

  2. I don’t know on the runs per game and spreadsheet I had on it is long gone..

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