Adam Dunn (v. 2012): 3 True Outcome God

Adam Dunn is having an amazing season considering how horrible his season was last year. Besides the turn around, he is on pace to have the largest percentage of his plate appearances end in either a Walk, Strikeout or Home Run, the three true outcomes. Here is a list of the top 10 players in 3 true outcome percentage since 1955 with at least 300 PA in a season:

Name Season PA HR% BB% K% 3 True Outcome %
Adam Dunn 2012 325 7.4% 17.9% 37.2% 62.5%
Jack Cust 2007 507 5.1% 20.7% 32.4% 58.2%
Mark McGwire 2000 321 10.0% 23.7% 24.3% 57.9%
Jack Cust 2008 598 5.5% 18.6% 32.9% 57.0%
Mark McGwire 1998 681 10.3% 23.8% 22.8% 56.8%
Mark McGwire 2001 364 8.0% 15.4% 32.4% 55.8%
Jack Clark 1987 558 6.3% 24.4% 24.9% 55.6%
Mark Reynolds 2010 596 5.4% 13.9% 35.4% 54.7%
Dave Nicholson 1964 350 3.7% 14.9% 36.0% 54.6%
Ryan Howard 2007 648 7.3% 16.5% 30.7% 54.5%

Dunn looks to be the first player with a percentage over 60% and will crush the previous high by 4%.

5+2=5

How is this 5 minute pudding when it takes at least 7 minutes to make according to the directions? I may only had 5 minutes. Think of the kids with their runny pudding.

Out/Base Runner Matrix for Batted Ball Data

Using 2002 to 2011 Retrosheet batted ball data, I calculated the percentage of times a certain batted ball happens given a certain number of outs and base runners (O stands for no one on that base and X means someone is on the base.  XOX means that there is a runner on 1B and 3B when the ball is hit)

Batted Ball Outs OOO XOO XXO XOX XXX OXO OXX OOX
Fly Ball 0 29% 27% 25% 30% 31% 23% 28% 30%
Ground Ball 0 45% 50% 53% 45% 44% 55% 47% 45%
Line Drive 0 18% 17% 15% 17% 17% 15% 18% 18%
Pop Up 0 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8%
Fly Ball 1 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 28% 29% 30%
Ground Ball 1 46% 45% 46% 47% 44% 46% 46% 45%
Line Drive 1 18% 18% 18% 16% 17% 18% 17% 17%
Pop Up 1 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8%
Fly Ball 2 29% 30% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Ground Ball 2 46% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 46% 46%
Line Drive 2 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 18%
Pop Up 2 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8%

I found a couple of pieces of information interesting. First, the number of grounders increase with no outs in the following situations: XOO, XXO, OXO. It is probably from bunts being used to move the runners over.  Also I find it interesting that the fly ball numbers are unchanged with runners on 3B.

A Couple of Website Updates

We have a couple updates to the website.

  1. Two pages have been added, Disabled List Data and DL and Injury Articles. I will continue to collect MLB DL at the end of the year and make a link to it on Disabled List Data. The DL and Injury articles are reference on different subjects. I want to try to get as many useful articles added so people can use it as a reference.
  2. The Retrosheet Downloads were missing a bit of data and now the “Last 10 Years” data has been hopefully corrected. Let us know if anyone sees any more errors. Thanks

Albert Pujols Historic Level of Decline

For 2012, Albert Pujols had a projected OPS of 0.933 by the Marcel projection system. Since 1954, 255 players have had an OPS within +/- 0.025 of Albert’s projected.  So far this season, he has hit for an OPS of 0.539. If he is to continue hitting at this rate (extremely unlikely), he would have the lowest OPS of any of the 255 similar players.  Here are the 5 players that produced the lowest OPS in the season they were projected to have an OPS similar to Pujol’s OPS.

Name OPS Year
Travis Hafner 0.628 2008
Roy Campanella 0.686 1954
Scott Rolen 0.706 2005
Dick Allen 0.712 1975
Willie McCovey 0.719 1972

Definition of Pressing in Baseball

I heard a player is pressing more and more by managers, so I wanted to come up with a definition for it.  With the help of the writers at Fangraphs, here the best definition I could come up with:

A significantly different/unnatural plate approach by a hitter that is leading to undesirable results.

Thoughts?

Historic (1901-2012) Marcel Hitting and Pitching CSV

Jeff Sackmann and Tom Tango have given us permission to combine and release complete files of 1901 to 2012 Marcel projection data to the public. Sackmann’s Marcels are used from 1901 to 2009 and Tango’s were used for 2010 to 2012. There are 2 zipped .csv files, one for hitters and one for pitchers. We have imported and combined the data for export. Jeff Sackmann and Tom Tango cannot verify the data since we have combined it. If you have any issues please comment on this website and we will answer your questions as best we can.

Marcel Data Download

The Rays Expected Regression in Team Pitcher BABIP

In 2011, the Tampa Rays had the best pitching BABIP in the last 10 years at 0.264. They should not expect to put up a similar value in 2012, but how much will they regress to the league average value near 0.290. To find the answer, I went back over the same 10 year time frame and looked at how the ten next best teams ranked according to lowest pitcher BABIP did in the next season.

Of the ten teams, their average BABIP went from 0.273 to 0.287, or an increase 0.015. All ten teams saw an increase n BABIP with the smallest increase being 0.004 and the largest being 0.029.