Cano Contract Success Rates

Just a quick take here. Cano has 19 fWAR over the past 3 seasons. Since 1970, 16 players have had between 17 and 21 WAR.  Three are still playing, Zobrist, A-Rod and Matt Holliday. Here is how the rest of them performed.

Name Total WAR PA Last Seaon Total Seasons
Chipper Jones 39.8 5203 2012 10
Rickey Henderson 37.7 5452 1999 10
Brian Giles 28.6 4814 2009 8
Rod Carew 28.4 4915 1985 9
Tony Perez 24.4 5420 1982 10
Carlton Fisk 23.9 4657 1988 10
Mike Piazza 19.6 3670 2007 8
John Olerud 16.3 3356 2005 6
Todd Helton 15.4 4652 2013 9
Alan Trammell 15.3 2904 1996 8
George Foster 12.8 3744 1986 7
Devon White 12.4 3572 2001 8
Andruw Jones 2.5 1388 2012 5
Alex Rodriguez 29.8 3570 2013 7
Matt Holliday 14.0 1806 2013 3
Ben Zobrist 11.3 1366 2013 2

Using 10 years, $240M, $6.5M/WAR, 5% inflation in my contract calculator, I have Cano needing to produce 30 WAR for the Mariners to break even on the contract. Here are the possible chances of the contract vs his possible results:

Contract vs Results Success Rate
> Value 15.4%
At value 15.4%
75% to 100% 15.4%
50% to 75% 30.8%
<50% 23.1%

Truthfully, I expected worse.

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2 thoughts on “Cano Contract Success Rates

  1. Pingback: Cano’s Worth | brearnwright

  2. Pingback: The Draft Pick Compensation Paradox | Community - FanGraphs Baseball

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