Hughes Velocity Drop Should Have Pointed to a Problem

Last night Phil Hughes maxed out at 92.3 MPH on his fastball.  His average fastball speed over the course of the regular season was 92.1 mph. It is not good sign when a pitcher is maxing out at his average speed.

The Yankees should have known immediately something was up with Hughes. They may have known and just let him go as long as he possibly could throw effectively.

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Ibanez vs Rodriguez

MGL asks

Girardi said that the possibility of using Ibanez as a pinch-hitter in the ninth was a logical one, since he is a low-ball hitter and would be working against Johnson, primarily a low-ball pitcher……Now, I have little doubt that teams are looking at this stuff themselves, but surely one of the many analysts/writers (for BP, THT, BtBS, etc.) should be looking at this too and reporting the results. It would be a snap to do this for many of them.

So, published analysts, hello? Where are you?

Well, using the Run Value Heat Map application, here is a comp of the per pitch Run Values for Ibanez compared to Rodriguez vs LHP (umpire’s perceptive) over the last 3 years.

Ibanez covers the entire plate better, but Arod owns the inside part of the plate (for RHH).

Here is the graph for just this year:

Close to the same with Raul looks to have more coverage.

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Updates - Heatmaps, Projection Comparisons and Prospect Ranking

A few updates have been visible recently and they are finalized.

1. Added the option to set the dates when comparing a Batter’s Swinging or Looking Strike Zone or a Batter’s Run Value Heat Map.

Players can now be compared to how they perform over time.

2. Added Marcels Pitcher and Batter Similarity Projections

These 2 functions take a player’s Marcel projection and then finds players with similar projections. Besides finding similar players, it shows how those players actually performed.

3. I started populating a prospect area. I am looking to link reports on prospects in one place. Besides including links to the articles, I have included an option to rate a player’s pitching or hitting motions.

I will populate with articles/videos I find. It will probably be Royal centric for a while. If any wants anyone added from any team, even undrafted, left me know and I will add them. Also, if someone would like to help, let me know.

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Video and Poll Testing

I am doing some testing and want to see how it looks.

How would you rate Bubba Starling's bat speed?

View Results

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Better Seasons Than Miguel Cabrera’s Season Since 1967

Miguel Cabrera hit the following this this year and won the AL Triple Crown:

  • 44 HRs
  • .330 AVG
  • 139 RBI

Since 1967 when Carl Yastrzemski achieve the last triple crown, 3 players have put up equal or better numbers in all 3 categories and none won the triple crown. Manny was the only hitter to league the league in a stats and that was RBIs.

Player HR BA RBI Year Age Tm
Albert Pujols 49 .331 137 2006 26 STL
Todd Helton 49 .336 146 2001 27 COL
Manny Ramirez 44 .333 165 1999 27 CLE

Here is how each ended up in the MVP voting:

  • Pujols - 2nd behind Ryan Howard
  • Helton - 9th behind Bonds, Sosa, Gonzalez, Pujols, Berkman, Green, Bagwell and C. Jones
  • Ramirez - 3rd behind Rodriquez and Martinez and tied with Alomar.
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Career Replacement Level Players

I wanted to know some players that continued to played by managers and put up only replacement level production. I collected the top 20 players, by PA, that had between -2 and 2 WAR in their careers from 1954 to present. Maybe someone else might find this list interesting/useful.

Neifi Perez 0.4 5393
Chris Gomez 0.4 5080
Jerry Morales 0.5 4763
Ricky Gutierrez -0.8 4070
Delmon Young 1.4 3502
Desi Relaford 1.6 3231
Gerald Perry 1.3 3225
Darnell Coles 0.8 3115
Todd Benzinger 0.1 3093
Aaron Miles 1.2 3052
Felix Fermin 1.5 2978
Marvell Wynne -1.5 2937
Mark Lewis -0.1 2909
Joe DeMaestri 1.4 2873
Tom Veryzer -1.8 2783
Willie Bloomquist 1.4 2737
Larry Milbourne -1.3 2671
Craig Paquette -0.2 2664
Quinton McCracken 1.2 2611
Rowland Office -1.6 2605


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HBP Aging Curve

Over at The Book Blog, Tom Tango asked if anyone could crank out an aging curve for hitters with high HBP rates.  Here is the aging curve for players that had a HBP/PA rate of 3.5% in any season in which they had 50 PAs since 1980 (110 players).

It is close to being the same, but the high HBP hitters do age a bit faster.

Same graph as a bar graph:


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wRC Leaders Over the Last Year

With the All-Star selections being made by the fans and managers, here are the offensive leaders over the last year (July-Oct. in 2011 and Apr.-June in 2012) using wRC totals from Fangraphs.

Rank Name wRC
1 Joey Votto 137.9
2 Miguel Cabrera 131.1
3 Ryan Braun 125.2
4 Jose Bautista 119.3
5 Josh Hamilton 118.7
6 Robinson Cano 118.3
7 David Ortiz 115.8
8 Curtis Granderson 112.9
9 Melky Cabrera 112.0
10 Ian Kinsler 111.0

Continue reading

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Microwave Crispy

I am guessing that it means that the food doesn’t come out completely soggy.

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Adam Dunn (v. 2012): 3 True Outcome God

Adam Dunn is having an amazing season considering how horrible his season was last year. Besides the turn around, he is on pace to have the largest percentage of his plate appearances end in either a Walk, Strikeout or Home Run, the three true outcomes. Here is a list of the top 10 players in 3 true outcome percentage since 1955 with at least 300 PA in a season:

Name Season PA HR% BB% K% 3 True Outcome %
Adam Dunn 2012 325 7.4% 17.9% 37.2% 62.5%
Jack Cust 2007 507 5.1% 20.7% 32.4% 58.2%
Mark McGwire 2000 321 10.0% 23.7% 24.3% 57.9%
Jack Cust 2008 598 5.5% 18.6% 32.9% 57.0%
Mark McGwire 1998 681 10.3% 23.8% 22.8% 56.8%
Mark McGwire 2001 364 8.0% 15.4% 32.4% 55.8%
Jack Clark 1987 558 6.3% 24.4% 24.9% 55.6%
Mark Reynolds 2010 596 5.4% 13.9% 35.4% 54.7%
Dave Nicholson 1964 350 3.7% 14.9% 36.0% 54.6%
Ryan Howard 2007 648 7.3% 16.5% 30.7% 54.5%

Dunn looks to be the first player with a percentage over 60% and will crush the previous high by 4%.

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