A Couple of Website Updates

We have a couple updates to the website.

  1. Two pages have been added, Disabled List Data and DL and Injury Articles. I will continue to collect MLB DL at the end of the year and make a link to it on Disabled List Data. The DL and Injury articles are reference on different subjects. I want to try to get as many useful articles added so people can use it as a reference.
  2. The Retrosheet Downloads were missing a bit of data and now the “Last 10 Years” data has been hopefully corrected. Let us know if anyone sees any more errors. Thanks

Albert Pujols Historic Level of Decline

For 2012, Albert Pujols had a projected OPS of 0.933 by the Marcel projection system. Since 1954, 255 players have had an OPS within +/- 0.025 of Albert’s projected.  So far this season, he has hit for an OPS of 0.539. If he is to continue hitting at this rate (extremely unlikely), he would have the lowest OPS of any of the 255 similar players.  Here are the 5 players that produced the lowest OPS in the season they were projected to have an OPS similar to Pujol’s OPS.

Name OPS Year
Travis Hafner 0.628 2008
Roy Campanella 0.686 1954
Scott Rolen 0.706 2005
Dick Allen 0.712 1975
Willie McCovey 0.719 1972

Historic (1901-2012) Marcel Hitting and Pitching CSV

Jeff Sackmann and Tom Tango have given us permission to combine and release complete files of 1901 to 2012 Marcel projection data to the public. Sackmann’s Marcels are used from 1901 to 2009 and Tango’s were used for 2010 to 2012. There are 2 zipped .csv files, one for hitters and one for pitchers. We have imported and combined the data for export. Jeff Sackmann and Tom Tango cannot verify the data since we have combined it. If you have any issues please comment on this website and we will answer your questions as best we can.

Marcel Data Download

The Rays Expected Regression in Team Pitcher BABIP

In 2011, the Tampa Rays had the best pitching BABIP in the last 10 years at 0.264. They should not expect to put up a similar value in 2012, but how much will they regress to the league average value near 0.290. To find the answer, I went back over the same 10 year time frame and looked at how the ten next best teams ranked according to lowest pitcher BABIP did in the next season.

Of the ten teams, their average BABIP went from 0.273 to 0.287, or an increase 0.015. All ten teams saw an increase n BABIP with the smallest increase being 0.004 and the largest being 0.029.

Accounts of Tommy John’s Surgery from the Mid-1970′s

Tommy John was a pioneer in pitcher surgeries. He was the first pitcher to have his ulnar collateral ligament reconstructed in 1974 by Dr. Frank Gobe. Recently, I ran across a couple accounts of the injury and surgery that show some insights from the time.

First, Tommy John explains how the injury felt to him.

After the injury to his left elbow on July 17, 1974, Tommy John would wake up in his home in Yorba Linda, Calif., and the bones, he says, would go “pop and crack,” like giant dice rattling around. [2]

A few months later, the team doctor, Frank Jobe, performed what would become to be known eventually as Tommy John surgery.

The elbow did not heal, and Dr. Jobe went in and operated on September 25. It was worse than anybody expected. Totally shredded, Jobe had to cut a seven-inch strip of tendon from John’s right arm for use in sewing up the muscles in the torn left elbow. Even that may not work, Jobe said. Maybe the tissue would not be accepted, and if it weren’t , they’d have to do something else. Even if it did heal, Jobe said, he could make no promises about the ultimate strength of the arm. He called the operation “quite serious” and, on a scale of one to ten, he had it near the top “as one of the serious operations for a pitcher.”[2]

Today the operation is fairly common with a good success rates, but it was cutting edge at the time. The operation did run into some issues when the ulnar nerve was injured and atrophy set in.

Dr. Frank Jobe took several inches of tendon out of Tommy’s right forearm and grafted it in the left elbow, but somewhere along the line the ulnar nerve began to drop out. This is a conduit of sensation known to the layman as the “crazy bone”, but it was like an unplugged electric wire so far as Tommy was concerned. The arm and hand began to atrophy and parts of the fingers [began] to mummify. [1]

Continue reading

1971 Sabermetric Smackdown

After looking through some 1971 Sport Illustrateds, I came across this small blurb about the physics behind how to determine how far a baseball has traveled.

A little phycis isn’t the end of the world, unless they are WRONG.

I could just hear Mr. Taft say some like, “This professor is WRONG in this Sports Illustrated. I need to show him.” Times never really change.

Updated Features

My brother Darrell and I spent a weekend adding a few features to the website. Here are the highlights.

1. The retrosheet .sql download is now updated with the 2011 data.

2. The heat maps in the Applications area now have the option of adding pitch type. The batted ball data also has pitch type added.

3. The heat maps now have the option of square outputs instead of just contour outputs.

4. The login name and password have been removed to get to the Applications.

5. In the two batted ball applications, the number of records being examined is now displayed.

6. A NEW APPLICATION was added that counts the number of balls hit into certain zones on the field. The data is currently outputted in table format.

Let us know if you have any questions.

-Jeff

Cost Per Month by Month Signed

Matt Swartz recently ran an article at Fangraphs on cost per WAR for free agents. I asked him if he could break down the data by month. Here is the results:

Month $ (millions)/WAR Count
October 7.35 18
November 5.91 118
December 5.13 251
January 3.51 226
February 3.76 140
March 3.70 45

As it can be seen, the longer a team waits to sign a player, the better the deal. As a Royals fan, I am so glad Dayton Moore just jumped all over Bruce Chen early in free agency.

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Reggie Jackson on Handling Pressure

Reggie Jackson mentions in his book,Sixty Feet, Six Inches, how he operates under pressure:

When there’s pressure, usually, there’s also an unusual amount of attention from the outside. Everyone in the park–and sometimes, everyone in the country–is watching. That was a good scenario for me. I like that. I needed that. It helped me focus.

I called those Reggie Moments.

So Reggie needed the whole world looking at him to focus. I wonder what he could have produced over his career if he was focused all the time while playing.